Why Pallone remains upbeat on the climate fight

If you are losing faith that Washington can respond rationally to the climate crisis, Rep. Frank Pallone, chairman of the committee handling climate policy, might be able to cheer you up.

Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the king of coal, the man who sunk a knife into the Build Back Better bill, supports nearly all its climate change provisions. He killed the bill for other reasons, mainly its overall cost, and the child tax credit.

"He has indicated that he can support the climate provisions, so we should feel optimistic," Pallone says. "I've talked to him about this, and he is a person we can work with."

This is not spin, folks. A lot could go wrong, and Pallone himself puts the odds of passing a new version of Build Back Better at about 60 percent. But if anything passes, it's almost sure to include strong climate provisions, he says.

Manchin himself made it clear last month, as Democratic leaders like Pallone began scrambling to save what pieces they could.

"The climate thing is one that we probably can come to an agreement much easier than anything else," Manchin told reporters.

So, Democrats now face the most ancient political question of all: Do you want half a loaf, or nothing at all?

The answer should be obvious, especially when that half loaf includes a credible plan to sharply reduce carbon emissions.

Biden's original plan, much of it hammered out in Pallone's committee, relied on a carrot-and-stick strategy to reduce emissions from the power sector. Plants spewing heavy loads of carbon, like coal plants, would face a penalty, while those relying on more wind and solar power would receive payments.

Manchin exploded that plan several months ago, but he didn't walk away. His staff and Pallone's worked together on a new plan that relied entirely on carrots. Green power plants would be subsidized, but coal plants would not be penalized. Both bills subsidized other green activities, like building wind farms, buying an electric car, or attaching solar panels to your home.

That new version, experts said, was nearly as potent as the original and would open a path to zero emissions from the power sector by 2035.

"This is game-changing," said Carol Browner, director of the Environmental Protection Agency under President Obama. "It's generational."

Manchin hasn't been precise about what he'll support, a maddening habit. But he said in December that he'd support a climate bill costing $500 billion, close to the $550 price tag in the original Build Back Better plan. And Pallone is certain he supports the carrots-only approach in the revised version because their staffs worked on it together.

"Is he generally in agreement with the $500 billion and what's in there?" Pallone asks. "Yes, he is. Has he agreed to all the specifics? Who knows? He may still want to make some changes around the edges. It wasn't like it was signed in blood."

Let's assume Pallone's optimism is correct, and Democrats can hold together on a revised climate plan.

The next question is tactical: Should Democrats peel off the climate provisions in Build Back Better, and vote on that alone, leaving the other parts of Build Back Better for another day?

No, it turns out. Because every single Republican in the Senate opposes these climate provisions, Democrats will have to use a process known as reconciliation, allowing them to bypass the filibuster and pass bills with 51 votes, relying on Vice-President Kamala Harris to break a 50-50 tie.

But reconciliation can be used only once a year, so if Democrats use it on climate, they'll need 60 votes, at least 10 of them Republican, to pass other critical reforms, like Pallone's bill to lower prescription drug prices, or preschool expansion. Fat chance.

Which means Democrats must hold together, even to get a half-loaf.

It means they'll have to throw the child tax credit overboard, even though it's reduced child poverty by about 40 percent. It means they will have to cut the cost of the bill by half, maybe more, putting everything at risk.

The big items most likely to survive, Pallone suggests, would be on climate change, the Obamacare expansions, and perhaps his prescription drug plan, which would save the federal government money by allowing Medicare to negotiate prices for the first time.

The next move is up to Senate Democrats, who must reshape Build Back Better to meet the objections of Manchin and Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema. Whatever they come up with, Pallone says, the House is almost certain to approve.

"The question is what do we take out," Pallone says. "We don't want to eliminate anything. But the reality is he (Manchin) will say what he doesn't want, and those are the things that will probably be taken out. We're waiting."

Time is draining away fast. Republicans are almost certain to take control of the House next year, so Democrats might not have another chance for years to come. If they blow this final shot to fight climate change with vigor, history will be unforgiving.